I'm the administrator of a Y-DNA project for a Jewish surname (Heimlich),
which is not too common. Most of them are of Hungarian origin and trace
back to NE Hungary in the early 1800s. But good "paper trail" is lacking
before about 1850.

Some of the descendants have been working on the genealogy for forty years
or more, but because of the spotty paper records, were unable to determine
whether all the Hungarian Heimlichs shared a single male ancestor.

We first made a list of all known branches (there turned out to be 29 of
them), and then set out to test one descendant of each branch. So far, we
have seven results: three of them are E1b (and match each other closely).
Three are R1a and Levites. they match each other also, but less closely.
The seventh one is Q1.

My point is that you can acheive good results by careful and targeted
Y-DNA testing. And when you get a match, you know you really have a
*match*.

Beth Long
Budapest

A genetic researcher statistician at Arthur Anderson in Houston told me
there are not enough markers in any of the current tests. I asked him in
their research how many markers they use.

The answer: 1,000,000

So I have been hesitant to pay for any tests.

Ivan Sindell

Hi Beth

I was interested in your comments, because I am confused.

I am Sephardic and had very few matches (only 2 at 1-step 25Y) and both
had my surname - which makes sense because Sephardic surnames are
hereditary and unchanged for centuries. Further investigation revealed
them both to be indeed related.

However, I just had my Ashkenazi brother-in-law tested and he had 32
exact 12 marker matches, none of which had his surname. I assumed that
may be because Ashkenazi surnames are so recent. But they still made no
sense because I have his family tree back to his g-grandfather, all
bearing the same surname. More confusing is that not one of these 12
marker "exact" matches matched - even distantly - at 25 marker and more
levels. It does make you wonder what a 12 marker "exact" match means.

Does a 12 marker match mean *anything* at all? And if not, why bother
doing them at all?

Even his 25+Y 1 and 2 step matches did not really make much sense.

So, you may be correct. Maybe targeted testing is the only thing that
makes sense and the rest is a waste of money.

Jeff Malka

12-marker tests are good for ruling out a relationship. If two males
with the same surname do not match on at least 11/12 markers, it is
highly unlikely that they are related in a genealogical time frame.
If two males do match on 12/12 markers, that still does not guarantee
they are related. They could be on different branches of the Y-
phylogenetic tree and not have had a common ancestor for thousands of
years. For example, a male in haplogroup J1 can match a male in
haplogroup J2 on 12 markers; this happens among branches of haplogroup
E1b1b1 and R1b also. Even if they are on the same branch, the most
recent common ancestor between two males who match on only 12 markers
could have lived several thousand years ago. 12 markers can shed
light on deep ancestry, provided that there is a good prediction or
confirmation of the haplogroup. But I would not recommend using 12
markers to learn about recent ancestry. Even 25 markers do not give
enough resolution in many cases to estimate the time to most recent
common ancestor among Y-DNA matches.

Also, as more SNPs (the single nucleotide polymorphisms that define
sub-branches of the phylogenetic tree) continue to be discovered, it
is necessary to test out to the tiniest branches that continue to be
discovered. I have noticed that for haplogroups such as E1b1b1 and
R1b that 25-marker matches can be on different branches and therefore
not have a common ancestor in a genealogical time frame.

Generally, I prefer members of my DNA projects to test to 67 markers,
and I recommend that at least one member of each cluster of close
matches has a deep clade test to verify which branch of the
phylogenetic tree they are on.

Judy Simon


On Sat, Jun 12, 2010 at 8:12 AM, Jeff Malka
<JeffMalka@...> wrote:

Does a 12 marker match mean *anything* at all? And if not, why bother doing

them at all?

Even his 25+Y 1 and 2 step matches did not really make much sense.

So, you may be correct. Maybe targeted testing is the only thing that makes
sense and the rest is a waste of money.

This is summary of one of two current articles about using a 600,000
markers.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/landmark-study-proves-90-of-jews-are-genetically-linked-to-the-levant-1.295231
[or http://tinyurl.com/238g2ar --Mod.]

My summary

Landmark study proves 90% of Jews are genetically linked to the Levant
Jews in communities around the globe show more genetic similarities with
each other than they do with their non-Jewish neighbors, except in India
and Ethiopia. The only three exceptions were the Jews of India,
Ethiopia, and Georgia, who had more similarity to their host nations
than to other Jewish communities. The international study, led by
researchers >from Rambam Medical Center in Haifa and the Technion -
Israel Institute of Technology, mapped the Jewish genome for the first
time. The research encompassed communities representing most of the
world's Jewish population.
The study also showed the genetic ties between the Jewish people and
other peoples of the Levant: In communities representing 90 percent of
the Jewish people worldwide, Jews were more genetically similar to
non-Jewish Levantines than their non-Jewish hosts were.

Researchers >from eight countries - Israel, Britain, the United States,
Russia, Spain, Estonia, Portugal and Italy - compared 600,000 genetic
markers in 114 people >from 14 Diaspora Jewish communities and 1,161
people >from 69 non-Jewish populations.

I hope you find this interesting.

Ivan Sindell

Thanks Ivan,

Yes, those are autosomal SNPs, which are not the same as ySTRs and
are not used for direct male-line testing, which is the purpose of
STRs on the Y chromosome. You can currently examine about 1 million
SNPs by buying a commercial test with deCODEme, or about 550,000 for
half the cost with 23andme (for health and genealogy) or Family Tree
DNA (even cheaper, for genealogy only).

Best,

A.J. Levin

--- On Sun, 6/13/10, Ivan Sindell <isindell@...> wrote:

This is summary of one of two current
articles about using a 600,000
markers

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/landmark-study-proves-90-of-je
ws-are-genetically-linked-to-the-levant-1.295231

...

Your point is well taken, Donn. I do try to keep all options open.
Sorry I sounded too negative about anything less than an 11/12 marker
match. In fact, I do not casually throw them away myself.
Judy Simon

On Sun, Jun 13, 2010 at 2:46 PM, <DonnDevine@...> wrote:

Judy Simon <heyjude0701@...> wrote

12-marker tests are good for ruling out a relationship. If two males
with the same surname do not match on at least 11/12 markers, it is
highly unlikely that they are related in a genealogical time frame.

While this is generally true, this whole DNA business is about
probabilities--and some low-probability events occur.

...

"Enough" for what? What kind of research? This sounds like medical
research, which uses autosomal SNPs, not ySTRs.

The standard for forensic evidence in courts is usually the 13
autosomal STRs (two copies of each) in the CODIS panel. Usually
about a dozen STRs are used for testing the Y for paternity and
sexual assault cases. In genetic genealogy usually 37-67 STRs are
tested, sometimes as many as 100, but there are nowhere near 1
million ySTRs available for testing.

Best,

A.J. Levin

Shortly I after I mentioned the 1,000,000 markers yesterday I noticed
that two articles on Jewish genetics had been recently written up by the
nyt. One was published in nature this week.

Both used 600,000 markers.

I have tried to post the links and the write-ups and neither have showed
up on the list.

Check news.google.com

I am interested in your reaction.

Thank-you,
Ivan Sindell

MODERATOR NOTE: JewishGen's rules and guidelines do not permit us
to post forwarded material, including articles that have appeared
in other publications. We ask instead that you provide the URL
of the existing article, along with a brief statement of what the
article is about.

Judy Simon <heyjude0701@...> wrote

12-marker tests are good for ruling out a relationship. If two males
with the same surname do not match on at least 11/12 markers, it is
highly unlikely that they are related in a genealogical time frame.

While this is generally true, this whole DNA business is about
probabilities--and some low-probability events occur.

I had a 10/12 same-surname match in one of my surname projects, and decided
that because the surname was the same, further testing was necessary
before a relationship could be ruled out.

In fact, the two samples matched at 35/37 markers. Just by chance, the two
mutations that separated them both occurred in the first panel of 12
markers tested.

As another example of a low-probability occurrence, I match a same-surname
first cousin at only 35/37 markers.

Donn Devine
Wilmington, Delaware, USA

Jeff and Ivan

According to the web page at
http://nitro.biosci.arizona.edu/ftdna/12-0-0.html, there is a 50%
probability that 2 people who match at 12 markers are share a common
ancestor 14 or 15 generations ago, and a 95% probability at 60-70
generations. At the 25 match level, those numbers become 7 and ~30
generations. So these kinds of tests have a relatively small chance of
helping you find close cousins. You're much better off doing autosomal
testing, which is only good at finding close ancestors and lousy at
finding very distant ones.

Lee Herman

Thanks Lee.

Of course that brings up Disraeli's quote about "statisticians,
politicians, and liars" <grin>.

The website you quote,
http://nitro.biosci.arizona.edu/ftdna/12-0-0.html
listed as "A Service of FTDNA" says that with an exact 12 marker match
there is a 50% probability of having a common ancestor 14-15 generations
ago - which does not sound that close.

But elsewhere on the FTDNA website, when I click on any of my 12 marker
exact matches it says it is a 30% possibility at 4 generations - which
sounds a lot better!

Here is what comes up for any of my exact 12 point matches:

Tip Report

In comparing 12 markers, the probability that Mr. ...... and .....
shared a common ancestor within the last...
Comparison Chart
Generations Percentage
4 33.57%
8 55.88%
12 70.69%
16 80.53%
20 87.07%
24 91.41%

notice the 50% probability at 8 generations instead of 14-15 generations

Ivan's friend talks of 1,000,000 markers, .....

I guess Bill Clinton was right: it all depends by what you mean by .....
(fill in).

Jeff Malka

Jeff Malka wrote:
"But elsewhere on the FTDNA website, when I click on any of my 12 marker
exact matches it says it is a 30% possibility at 4 generations - which
sounds a lot better!

Here is what comes up for any of my exact 12 point matches:

In comparing 12 markers, the probability that Mr. ...... and .....
shared a common ancestor within the last...
Comparison Chart
Generations Percentage
4 33.57%
8 55.88% ..."

Those figure are for the general population. Not for persons with
Askenazic ancestry where persons with 12 markers matches all have a
different surnames. What I did was to add 6 generations to the number of
generations above to cover the 200 years since we began using last names.

Sidney Sachs